6th Sense or Just Plain Probability

Most of the times, we are dealing with or weighing two options while making a decision - Right or Wrong, Yes or No, Go for it or Not. In this way, we always have 50% chances of making a decision and its turning out the way we assumed it to turn out. We may get a feeling of having a 6th Sense of understanding while ignoring the simple rules of Probability and unknowingly falling pray to it. How much idiotic it seems...I am just one of those idiots :)